Coronavirus: India among 20 countries most likely to be affected


The Hush Post | 6:52 pm | One-minute read |

India is among the 20 countries which are more likely to get affected by the deadly Coronavirus. According to a German study India ranks 17th in the list of countries most likely to import cases of the deadly coronavirus.

A team of researchers from the Humboldt University in Germany analysed air traffic patterns and came up with a list of 20 such countries. The study was titled ‘2019 Novel Coronavirus Global Risk Assessment’.

Researchers analysed air traffic patterns connecting 4,000 airports worldwide with over 25,000 direct connections between them. The study said that the “relative import risk” for India was 0.219 per cent.

The study says Indira Gandhi International Airport in Delhi has a localised relative import risk of 0.066 per cent. It put the risk at Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji Airport at 0.034 per cent and Kolkata’s Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose Airport at 0.020 per cent.


Research said the virus spread on an international scale due to air travel. Wuhan was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights. Authorities quarantined Wuhan on January 23, 2020 and closed the airport. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries.

Researchers said that by looking at air travel passenger numbers, one can estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas. “The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations,” the study said.

Notably, Coronavirus has spread to at least 15 other countries outside China.

In India, three cases of Coronavirus have been reported so far, all from Kerala.  Out of the three, two are medicos who have returned from Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.

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